Randomness And The Fog Of Goals

“Short termism is rife in football coverage these days. From the insatiable desire to learn 5 things from each match day to the pendulum swing in Falcao’s perceived talent level between last summer and this. It’s common to hear strikers’ peaks and troughs talked about in terms of confidence, hunger and desire, as though each change in output is the result of some tweak in the internal machinery of the player’s mentality and training. But how much of this is true and how much can be attributed to statistical noise? Take these three players, for instance. Goal-scoring in 6 consecutive season adjusted for minutes played. Who do you think they are? Which player is the best?” Stats Bomb

Celtic and the Decline of Scottish Football

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“But it looks like the decision to send the club to the bottom tier of the Scottish football pyramid may just be finally hitting home that it has been a hindrance for the overall domestic picture in a country that is worlds away from its big-spending British neighbours. If you look at the game in Scotland logically and sensibly, there is very little quality throughout the four divisions, especially in the top-flight, where it is essentially a race to finish second best behind the worst Celtic side in a long, long time.” Outside of the Boot

Goal Analysis: How Crystal Palace punished Chelsea on the counter

“Crystal Palace shocked Chelsea by running out of Stamford Bridge with a 2-1 victory. Just Jose Mourinho’s second home defeat in 100 Premier League matches, Palace pulled out a Mourinho-esque performance. Allowing Chelsea to control the ball (the Blues finished with 64% of possession), Palace defended brilliantly. Alan Pardew set his team up superbly, with two stout lines of defense, ready to break at any moment. Palace poached both their goals with brilliant counters, both coming down the left, and seizing on the mistakes of Chelsea’s backline.” Outside of the Boot

The ever-changing face of the EPL

“In September 1882, a group of schoolboys met around a North London lamppost and decided to start a football club that soon became known as Tottenham Hotspur. On 20 April 1901, Tottenham won the FA Cup. It had been an eventful 19 years. In that time the club had established itself as a local force and acquired a fan base. It had turned professional and soon afterwards had become a limited company. It had moved into its present White Hart Lane stadium, with a capacity at the time of 30,000.” The World Game – Tim Vickery

What the Ligue 1 numbers tell us so far

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“It’s the first international break of the 2015-16 season, which means the Ligue 1 season is 10.5% completed. From the numbers we have, this is what we have learned so far. PSG will win Ligue 1, easily. In the last three seasons, two of them were dominated by PSG and there wasn’t any semblance of a title race. What made last season so much fan for the neutral in France was that PSG weren’t running away in Ligue 1 and through 35 weeks last season, PSG were in a dogfight to win Ligue 1. It was the best title race in Europe. It was just as much ‘Lyon and Marseille have improved considerably’ as ‘PSG weren’t trying, even by their lackadaisical standards’.” backpagefootball

Chelsea’s aggressive loan approach lets club stockpile young talent

“In June, Shakhtar Donetsk forward Fred made his home debut for Brazil in a friendly against Mexico in Sao Paulo, having performed creditably as a substitute in away friendlies against Turkey and Austria. To widespread confusion, he was booed. His crime? Well, there wasn’t one, other than that he shared his name with Fred, a center forward who had been made a scapegoat for Brazil’s poor showing at the World Cup a year earlier. Brazilian fans–sufficient to get a significant spell of booing together–simply didn’t know who he was.” SI – Jonathan Wilson

Sheffield Wednesday – Working With Fire And Steel

“Sheffield Wednesday are one of those clubs with a fine history that these days find themselves playing in the Championship. Wednesday spent most of the 80s and 90s in the top flight of English football, but have not been in the Premier League since 2000 and won the last of their First Division titles back in 1930. Indeed, in recent times they actually spent two seasons in League One, England’s third tier, before promotion back to the Championship in 2012. Since then, they have not really threatened the promotion or play-off places, but there is now cause for a degree of optimism in the steel city following the arrival of new Thai owner Dejphon Chansiri.” The Swiss Ramble

Milestone Müller Maintains Bayern’s 100% Record

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“Bayern made it three wins from three in the weekend’s top game as they downed Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 at the Allianz Arena. Thomas Müller was the hero with a brace, while Arjen Robben added a third. It was a case of Leverkusen being good, but Bayern being exceedingly good. What do you do when you’ve got your two first-choice centre-backs out? Well if you’re Pep Guardiola you just fill your side with midfielders. With both Mehdi Benatia and Jerome Boateng missing, the Bayern trainer went with a three-man back line of Philipp Lahm, David Alaba and Juan Bernat with Thiago playing just in front.” Bundesliga Fanatic

Tactical Notes on Saturday’s Bayern Munich – Bayer Leverkusen Match
“MatchDay 3’s game of the week fixture featured two (of three) Bundesliga clubs with perfect records after two weeks, as holders FC Bayern Munich hosted Bayer 04 Leverkusen. In terms of squad strength, each club was short-handed, as Bayern were without much in the way of available defenders while Leverkusen’s attacking midfielder, Heung-Min Son, just signed a deal with Tottenham. Nevertheless, Bayern were able to prevail, downing Die Werkself 3-0.” Bundesliga Fanatic

European football: 7-1 scorelines, fluke goals and more

“It was a busy weekend across Europe, with Barcelona, Real Madrid and Bayern Munich winning, Roma shocking Juventus and transfers galore. But what are the stories you might have missed? Several former Premier League strikers on the scoresheet, freak goals and stadium problems and more – BBC Sport takes a look.” BBC

Louis van Gaal’s quest for control brings scant consolation at Swansea

“If only Club Brugge were in the Premier League. But they are not and, when you strip out the seven goals Manchester United scored in two games against them, they have scored just three in four this season. For all the talk of progress and of Louis van Gaal’s methods slowly being assimilated by his players, his 50th game in charge ended with the same result as his first: a 2-1 defeat to Swansea.” Guardian – Jonathan Wilson

Talent Radar Young Players Team of the Week #4 — Matthias Ginter, Raheem Sterling, and Nabil Fekir feature

“A regular feature on our website is the Talent Radar Team of the Week with the best young players compiled into an XI from across Europe’s top six leagues. You can read this for all details on Talent Radar, who is eligible under it and what else we publish within this feature.” Outside of the Boot.

James Rodríguez – the future of Real Madrid

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“The result of this weekend’s drubbing of Real Betis by Real Madrid not only relieved some early season pressure off new manager Rafa Benitez, but also heavily showcased the future stars of Los Blancos. The media loves mentioning Gareth Bale and his two goals and that he is (probably) just a few mental roadblocks away from becoming the main star for Real. However, James Rodríguez’s scintillating display and classy brace this past weekend was a real sign of what we will soon come to expect on a weekly basis from the young Colombian star. When James Rodríguez first made his ‘appearance’ in Brazil 2014, everybody knew him as the up and coming young Colombian partner of Joao Moutinho at AS Monaco. Yes, he was an exciting talent, but how many players shine at the World Cup only to flop for big clubs soon after?” backpagefootball

Euro 2016: How two wins in four days could make history for Wales

“Fever-pitch excitement surrounds Gareth Bale and the rest as Wales are on the brink of appearing at their first major tournament finals since 1958. But, in the week of Euro 2016 qualifying matches away against Cyprus on Thursday, 3 September and Israel at home on Sunday, 6 September, the big question appears to be – will it take four days or four games?” BBC

From Ice Station Zebra to the Promised Land – Oldham’s golden era

“Former Everton and Manchester City star Joe Royle had been in the job for just a few weeks shy of five years, maintaining Oldham Athletic’s place in English football’s second tier without previously threatening to end their 64-year exile from the First Division. By the end of the 1986/87 season though, the Latics were pushing hard for one of the two automatic promotion places having become more adept at turning defeats into victories, primarily through a much tighter defence than in previous campaigns. Their chief rivals were Portsmouth – managed by Royle’s former Everton team mate and World Cup winner Alan Ball – and the soon-to-be Robert Maxwell-bankrolled Derby County.” Football Pink (Video)

Champions League draw analysis: Picks to make it out of each group

UEFA General Secretary Gianni Infantino, left, and UEFA Competitions Director Giorgio Marchetti, right, remove the balls containing the names of the soccer clubs, during the draw for the Champions League 2015/16 play-offs, at the UEFA Headquarters in Nyon, Switzerland, Friday, Aug. 7, 2015. (Salvatore Di Nolfi/Keystone via AP)
“There was a twist to the Champions League group stage draw in Monaco Thursday. UEFA’s new seeding regulations meant that only reigning champions would be picked from Pot 1, leaving some dangerous contenders in the lower pots. And so it proved, as Manchester City was drawn with Juventus and Sevilla while Real Madrid drew Paris Saint-Germain and Shakhtar Donetsk. The draw resulted in some intriguing individual storylines, powerhouses going up against one another and the first steps on the road to the San Siro.” SI (Video)

Louis van Gaal’s possession obsession risks blunting Manchester United’s edge

“‘My worry,’ Louis van Gaal said after Manchester United’s draw against Newcastle on Saturday, ‘is that we have to dominate the opponent’. He was not bothered, he insisted, that his side had failed to score, and he felt no great urge to sign another striker despite the ineffectiveness of Wayne Rooney; rather he was happy because ‘three times we are the better team … We did it today, we did it against Aston Villa and against Tottenham. Against Tottenham was less but against Villa, Brugge and today we dominated’.” Guardian – Jonathan Wilson

Roma v Juventus, a season defining game…already?

“It is only the second game of the season and we already have the spectre of a ‘season defining’ game as Roma and Juventus go head to head at the Stadio Olimpico. In previous years, this fixture may have been known as an early ‘title decider’, as Roma have been Juve’s closest challengers in the last two seasons (close in the sense of being seventeen points behind).” backpagefootball

Tactical Philosophy: Paco Jemez

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“Born on the 18th April 1970 as Francisco Jemez Martin, to the son of a flamenco singer, Paco has always admitted that he would have followed in his father’s musical footsteps if he had the talent for it, however he has proclaimed that he had ‘neither the voice nor the talent for it’. Instead his father helped shape his career in a different way. With his father being an avid Cordoba fan, it was Cordoba that Paco joined, and made his debut in the Segunda Division B as an 18 year old as a tough tackling centre-back.” Outside of the Boot

Klinsmann faced with several options in picking U.S. roster for friendlies

“So much for the best-laid plans of national team managers. U.S. coach Jurgen Klinsmann desperately wanted to avoid a playoff for CONCACAF’s spot in the 2017 Confederations Cup. So he selected a Gold Cup roster stocked with veterans and promising younger players—the best available, he claimed—who comprised a ‘very, very strong group that can win this prestigious tournament.’ It failed. The U.S. was 2-0-1 but unconvincing in the continental championship’s group stage.” SI

Tactical Analysis | West Ham 3-4 Bournemouth: Cherries dominate with wide overloads

“Premier league new boys AFC Bournemouth picked up their first ever top flight win in a 7 goal thriller at Upton Park. The game was characterised by drastic swings of momentum for both sides, though on the overall balance of play, Bournemouth certainly deserved to win the match and were rewarded for their refreshing attacking bravery.” Outside of the Boot

It’s Not You, It’s My Tactics: Francis Coquelin and the Impossibility of the Defensive Midfielder

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“With the final week of the transfer window upon us, Arsenal still haven’t bought a defensive midfielder. (Drink.) And if that doesn’t change for the first time in what feels like a century running, it’ll be because Arsene Wenger has decided to ride with Francis Coquelin. Let’s just get this out of the way: Coquelin is not a great midfielder, and he never will be.” Grantland

The rise of Carpi: Serie A’s newcomers

“It has been a truly remarkable ride for Carpi over the last few years. Based in the northern province of Modena, the modest-sized club from the small industrial town from which it gets its name have enjoyed a meteoric rise over the past several seasons, one that has seen them return from the dead and climb up the ranks at a rate of knots, culminating in them gaining a place in Serie A for the first time in their history. Founded as AC Carpi in 1909, the club spent the majority of their life battling in the lower tiers of Italian football, finding it difficult to carve out any success in the provincial leagues.” Outside of the Boot

Is Lablatinière buying Ligue 1 happiness?

“Until recently, the picturesque town of Angers was known mostly because of its Plantagenet-era history and because of its tradition of being one of Europe’s intellectual centres. However, after achieving promotion to Ligue 1 in the 2014-2015 season, the city’s football club, SCO Angers, has once again emerged into the limelight, taking centre stage.” backpagefootball

Blackburn Rovers – Burning Down The House

“This year marks the 20th anniversary of Blackburn Rovers winning the Premier League, a magnificent feat that only five clubs have achieved. Things are very different these days, compared to that golden period when Alan Shearer and Chris Sutton were tearing defences apart, as Rovers now languish in the Championship following a disastrous takeover. In November 2010 Rovers were acquired by Indian poultry giants Venky’s, who paid £23 million to end the club’s long association with the Jack Walker Trust. The new owners also took on around £20 million of debt, subsequently converting £10 million into share capital.” The Swiss Ramble

Champions League: Celtic weakness cruelly exposed in defeat

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“In the minutes after Celtic’s lame exit from the Champions League, the mixed zone at the Swedbank Stadium was like a hospital ward for damaged footballers. The visiting team trooped in with their pride hurting not just because of what their driven opponents from Malmo had just done to them but by what their own manager had said about them. When Ronny Deila accused his team of being ‘scared’ and ‘frightened’ on the night, it was as firm a kick to their collective solar plexus as anything the Swedes visited upon them.” BBC

Saturdays on the Couch, Week 2: Sluggish Wolfsburg

“…I wrote about how he was one of the coaches to watch in my Family Tree pieces but with quotes like the above and his quote in the same presser where he said: ‘Fundamentally, it is better to lose while playing well in the second half rather than win with the first half performance, as we really did not do enough.’ He is quickly becoming one of my favorite coaches.” StatsBomb

Tactical Analysis: Arsenal 0 Liverpool 0

“… Both teams missed important first-team players, with Arsenal’s loss arguably the greater. Liverpool were without their captain Jordan Henderson and Adam Lallana but their replacements – Lucas and Firmino respectively – played important roles in creating a different outlook which arguably suited the game more. After using a lopsided 4-2-1-3 for the previous two games, here – arguably due to the change from Henderson to Lucas – Rodgers opted for a 4-1-2-3 formation instead.” Tomkins Times

From Galáctico to Partridge: Why are we obsessed with trolling Michael Owen?

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“As much I’m looking forward to the Premier League’s latest Saturday lunchtime kick-off, I can’t seem to concentrate on the screen. It’s the BT Sport logo in the top-right corner that’s causing me the problem. As soon as I see it my thumbs take over in a flurry of muscle-memory. It seems like I’m not alone. Within minutes, Twitter’s trending topics reveal that the eyes of the whole country have been yanked from the big screen at the front of the room to the small screen in their hand. Michael Owen, it seems, gives us all absolutely no choice but to tweet about him. Indeed, by the time the weekend’s over, criticism of his commentary has already hit the back pages, with stories that are little more than the journalistic equivalent of a playground pile-on.” Four Four Two (Video)

Player Analysis: Sergio Busquets against Athletic Bilbao

“In the 1st leg of the Spanish Super Cup, Barcelona had huge problems dealing with the high-press of Bilbao in Barcelona’s own half-pitch, while also employing a man-marking system. Athletic were also very centrally compact playing with a 4-4-2, which Barcelona could not penetrate, conceding 4 goals through different pressing approaches of Bilbao which eventually led to counter-attacks against the then destabilized Barca defense.” Outside of the Boot

Italian football’s stadium problem

“Italian football has been the sick man of Europe. The phrase was once used to describe the Ottoman Empire, with which Italian football has similarities. Like the Ottoman Empire in the early twentieth century, Serie A is living off past glories. Its Constantinople was the San Siro, where great Milan sides once battled it out, but now plays host to two pale imitations. The Ottoman Empire was behind the great powers of England, Germany and France, whereas now Italy is also behind England, Germany Spain and France.” backpagefootball

Taking the temperature of Manchester United

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“Making observations based off one game and presenting them as fact is reactionary pulp, especially when players and teams have anywhere between 37 and 50 games left, including cups, to rectify mistakes, build chemistry and become comfortable with themselves, each other and the system they play within. Three games in, and little more than guesswork is still the most prevalent manner of forecasting the next nine months of soccer.” backpagefootball

Bundesliga This and That: Random Thoughts on our Favorite League – Week 2

“After two matchdays, which club is currently best in the Bundesliga? Two weeks into the season, only Borussia Dortmund, FC Bayern Munich and Bayer 04 Leverkusen still carry perfect records, with BvB tops in the table due to their +8 goal differential.  Are they the best so far, though?  Personally, the answer is a qualified yes — no goals allowed, incisive play, and a whopping 53% conversion rate of shots on goal (eight goals in 15 SOGs), while Roman Bürki has been perfect in stopping opponents’ SOG (three saves in three SOGs).  Dortmund look more robust, healthier, than they did all of last season.  Their only blight thus far was the almost-ambush in Norway Thursday in Europa League action by Odd Grenland, who notched three early goals before Die Schwarzgelben answered with four. One could say that Thursday’s match was a learning experience for Thomas Tuchel, and fortunately, a rather inexpensive one.” Bundesliga Fanatic

Athletic Bilbao 0-1 FC Barcelona: Match Review

“Starting the game, Barcelona were coming up against a familiar opponent. The Catalan club have already played Athletic twice this season thanks to the Supercopa and the wounds from that defeat are still fresh. Therefore you would expect a lively start from Barça as they look to seek revenge but the opening stages were all a bit tame. Athletic were smart about absorbing the early Barcelona pressure and neither side registered a shot on target during the opening minutes. The high press of the Basques succeeded in limiting Barcelona’s ability to create clear-cut chances.” Barca Blaugranes

After the Fall: As Juventus Dominates, Serie A Needs Both Milan Teams to Be Competitive Again

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“What’s next for Serie A? Last year — with Juventus’s run to the Champions League final and five Italian teams in the Europa League’s Round of 16 — seemed like a big step forward for a league that has struggled to keep up both financially and competitively with other major European brethren. Yet something was missing: The red-and-black stripes of AC Milan. And now this year, for the first time in 60 years, neither AC Milan nor Inter Milan has qualified for European competition.” Grantland

José Mourinho thrives on tension but after two years it becomes a problem

“José Mourinho is a manager who thrives on conflict, someone who is never happy unless there is something to be unhappy about. Or at least to pretend to be unhappy about. ‘Mourinho,’ as Manchester City’s chief executive, Ferran Soriano, said when explaining why Barcelona opted for Pep Guardiola in 2008, ‘is a winner, but in order to win he guarantees a level of tension that becomes a problem.’ Tension is simply how he operates. If it isn’t there, he has to create it and he isn’t too bothered whom he hurts in doing so.” Guardian – Jonathan Wilson

Chelsea doesn’t have the depth to win the Premier League

“Chelsea cake-walked its way to the Premier League title last year. All the usual challengers were either in a state of transition (Manchester United and Liverpool), apparently lacking motivation (Manchester City), or being Arsenal (Arsenal). Having kept all the important pieces of the same squad together, and with questions still hovering over its rivals, Chelsea is (was?) heavily favored to repeat as champions. But judging by the evidence on display in preseason and in the Blues’ first two performances in the league, we should probably pump the brakes on those predictions.” Fusion

Is Brendan Rodgers actually any good?

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“This is something of a make or break season for Brendan Rodgers at Liverpool. Even a man with his levels of self-confidence must realize that he could find himself out of a job if Liverpool has another season like the previous one. For all the various moving pieces involved in a successful soccer team, the buck ultimately stops at the manager. If a team with trophy-winning ambitions repeatedly fails to win any trophies, heads usually roll.” Fusion

Tactical Analysis | Liverpool 1-0 Bournemouth: Combination play down the right

“Liverpool started off their home Premier League campaign with a less than convincing win over newly-promoted Bournemouth, aided by a controversial debut Anfield goal for summer signing Christian Benteke. The Reds named an unchanged eleven from last weekend’s win over Stoke City, while Eddie Howe effected two changes in his Bournemouth side, bringing in Eunan O’Kane and Max Gradel for Dan Gosling and Marc Pugh respectively. Liverpool lined up in their  customary 4-2-3-1; Adam Lallana’s position was more central while Philippe Coutinho started on the right. Jordan Henderson and James Milner formed the central midfield pairing, with Henderson sitting slightly deeper than Milner.” Outside of the Boot

La Liga preview: Can Real Madrid or Athletic Bilbao overtake Barcelona?

“On the face of it, the Spanish Super Cup suggested this season might be different. Barcelona, who won the treble of league, Copa del Rey and Champions League last season, was beaten 4–0 in the first leg by Athletic Bilbao and, back at the Camp Nou, managed only a 1–1 as it attempted the impossible task of overturning that deficit. Is Barça in crisis, could Athletic mount a serious challenge, is this the year when Spain becomes more than a two and a half horse race? Probably not.” SI – Jonathan Wilson

An insight into Football Scouting: Interview with Neil McGuinness

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“Neil was a professional scout with Celtic for many years and has worked under Neil Lennon and Ronny Deila. He has now taken a role working for the Qatar national team at the Aspire Academy. His role there is to scout for the players who will potentially represent the Qatar team at the World Cup in 2022. He was responsible for bringing in the likes of Virgil van Dijk and Stefan Johansen in terms of signings at Celtic. We thank Neil for his time and valuable insight.” Outside of the Boot

Graft, grit and Northern beauty

“Sir Alex Ferguson, Kenny Dalglish, Jock Stein, Sir Matt Busby, Bob Paisley, Bill Shankly, Brian Clough, Howard Kendall, Don Revie, Sir Bobby Robson: it’s a long and impressive list, but far from an exhaustive one. The common thread that links them to one another? Yes, they are all British, but more specifically, they’re all from either the North East of England or Scotland. So what, I hear you mutter. … It’s my assertion that, as they did not inherit, at birth, the specific qualities and traits needed to stand out in the cutthroat world of football but must possess them in order to break into that sphere in the first place, then it must be their upbringing and the environment of their formative years that defined them. So, it is to the North East of England and Scotland that we must look for those ingredients that shaped the young men who would eventually become legends.” Foofball Pink

A History of Volatility: Jose Mourinho Says He Wants to Stay at Chelsea, But He Says a Lot of Things

“The last two weeks at Chelsea have already pushed the club’s title-winning 2014-15 season way out of view. First, they opened the campaign with a home draw against Swansea City. Then, Jose Mourinho relieved the team doctor, Eva Carneiro, of her sideline duties under dubious circumstances. And in the first game without Carneiro nearby, the defending champs got smoked by Manchester City, 3-0, and now sit five points back of the top of the table. During the loss, for the first time in either of his stints at the club, Mourinho subbed out his captain, John Terry, at halftime.” Grantland

Ipswich Town – Forever The Same?

“One of the most surprising sides in last season’s Championship was Ipswich Town, who managed to reach the play-offs on a shoestring budget. Although they were eliminated in the semi-finals by local rivals Norwich City, this was a great achievement that highlighted the progress made under Mick McCarthy. When the experienced manager replaced Paul Jewell in November 2012, Ipswich were bottom of the Championship, but McCarthy successfully guided the club out of the relegation zone to finish in a comfortable 14th place. His first full season ended in a respectable 9th place in 2013/14, before he broke Ipswich’s many years of mid-table finishes by leading them to the play-offs.” The Swiss Ramble

Is Turkish football hampered by a dominant ‘Big Two’?

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“Forty million Euros. That is what Turkish Super Lig club Fenerbahce have spent in summer transfers this season a scenario which was all but unimaginable not so long ago. Of course the bulk of that cash was utilized in acquiring the services of the former Manchester United duo of Robin van Persie and Nani who are aiming to resurrect their careers at the Istanbul based club.” backpagefootball

Tactical Analysis | Manchester City 3-0 Chelsea: Alternating attacking methods from the home side

“The build up story was that the champions were visiting the runners up, and the two managers, Mourinho and Pellegrini were resuming an intense rivalry. The post mortems however, were very different, as Chelsea fans lamented the lack of spirit and the utter fragility of their seemingly powerful squad. Manchester City dominated the game from start to finish, making a lasting impression in the minds of many, not least the current champions.” Outside of the Boot

FC Barcelona Power Rankings: Week Two

“The timing of the Supercopa de España ensured that this week’s power rankings were pushed back a day to Tuesday, which means that we have a total of three competitive matches on which to rank the squad. Of course, there have been some ups and downs over the course of those 300 minutes of football, so this might get controversial… Don’t say I didn’t warn you.” Barca Blaugranes

Ten Portuguese players who could breakout this season

“Portugal’s performance at the FIFA U20 World Cup and UEFA U21 European Championships strengthened the perception that Portuguese football is on the ascendancy once again. Andre Gomes, William Carvalho and Bernardo Silva are just some of the players that have established themselves over the past few seasons.” backpagefootball

2015-16 Bundesliga Preview: Variety at the top, goals all the way through

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“The Bundesliga was my gateway drug into the high-flying, groupie-gathering, time-sucking, spreadsheet-staring, decimal-point debating, fantastic world of soccer analytics. I was your run-of-the-mill World Cup and EPL viewer before deciding one day I wanted to know more about the soccer world elsewhere and simply chose the Bundesliga to follow for a year. I put $200 in a betting account and began working to beat the bookies. I read Colin Trainor here on expected goals and built my own model. I manually input shots from all these different zones and adjusted for schedule.” StatsBomb

3-5-2 or 4-1-4-1: What approach best suits Pep Guardiola’s Bayern?

“Predicting Guardiola’s approach may be one of the hardest duty a football enthusiast could undertake. But despite the alterations and flexibility, Alankrith Shankar has narrowed down the options to two wide-scoped approaches that the Bayern Munich could implement. New Year, new squad, same manager. Pep Guardiola is into the last year of his current contract at Bayern Munich and early signs show that there may not be an extension offered to the Spaniard unless he pulls off a treble that the fans and board have been wanting ever since he set foot at the club’s training grounds.” Outside of the Boot

Examining Olympique Lyonnais’ reformed attack

“It’s very, very early into the 2015-16 Ligue 1 season so any overarching analysis must be taken with a massive grain of salt. We’re only 5.3% through the season and as last season proved for a lot of teams, nothing can really be deciphered with any sort of validity until perhaps 10 weeks into the season. That being said, it’s been curious to see how Lyon has reshaped their attack for this season. Lyon sold winger/forward Clinton N’Jie for around €17 million after just completing his first season in Ligue 1 last season. Claudio Beauvue was brought on earlier this summer from Guingamp and Lyon only a few days ago signed Mathieu Valbuena from Dynamo Moscow.” backpagefootball

Tactical Analysis: Athletic Bilbao 4-0 Barcelona | Bilbao’s 4-4-2 and pressing exposes Barca’s vulnerabilities

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“San Mames is a notoriously hard stadium to play in, as visiting teams often find themselves wavering in front of the intense Bilbo crowd and team during the 90 minutes of the game. Since the first sound of the whistle, Bilbao approached the game with a robust and intense style. Playing hard, aggressive and direct, the first 10-20 minutes of the game did not see Bilbao risk anything in the build up, but instead preferred to play longer towards the opposing half, in order to force the high-lines of Barcelona to drop deeper. This long balls approach worked as it forced Ter-Stegen out of the goal to head it away, leaving his goal completely exposed which was duly punished by what may turn out to be a contender for goal of the season. San Jose got to the 2nd ball and shot directly into the open goal from 40 yards out, resulting in a 1-0 lead for Bilbao after 15 minutes of the Super Copa Espana.” Outside of the Boot

Record fourth straight Bundesliga title all but a given for Bayern Munich

“No team has ever won four German titles in a row before. Not in the Bundesliga, and not in the complicated days before the national league when the champion was decided by regional tournaments feeding into a knockout. When Bayern won a third straight title last season, it was the fifth time since a national championship was inaugurated in 1903 that a team had completed a hat trick. But nobody’s ever done four. This should be the story of a great quest, of a champion struggling against the entropic imperative to register the greatest run of sustained success in history, but it’s not. Bayern will, almost certainly, win the title.” SI – Jonathan Wilson

Continental schism presents a tough question

epa04873815 Players of River Plate of Argentina celebrate after winning the Copa Libertadores Cup after defeating Tigres of Mexico at a soccer match held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 05 August 2015. EPA/David Fernández

epa04873815 Players of River Plate of Argentina celebrate after winning the Copa Libertadores Cup after defeating Tigres of Mexico at a soccer match held in Buenos Aires, Argentina, 05 August 2015. EPA/David Fernández

“Buenos Aires giant River Plate won its third Copa Libertadores title earlier this month, beating Tigres of Mexico 3-0 on aggregate in the two-legged final. Some in Europe were gripped by the fact that this triumph came only four years after the club had been relegated to Argentina’s second division. In reality, though, there is no need to be astonished. Such wild oscillations have become almost par for the course in the South American club game. The previous winner of the Libertadores was another Buenos Airies side, San Lorenzo. It did not go down to the second division. But it came very close. In the middle of 2012 it was forced into a play-off to determine its first division survival. It won – and two years later it was champion of its continent.” The World Game – Tim Vickery

Tactical Analysis: Barcelona 5-4 Sevilla | How Barca created space in the middle by playing out wide

“Last season treble winners Barcelona came up against Europa League champions Sevilla in the Georgian capital of Tbilisi. For what was expected as a mouth – watering game by many, I’m sure they weren’t disappointed with the final outcome.” Outside of the Boot

Three Lingering Questions After Manchester City’s Win Over Chelsea

“There was plenty of good football played this weekend, from Stoke’s thrilling comeback against Spurs, Arsenal’s righting of the ship against Crystal Palace, and another impressive performance from Swansea. But the main event happened Sunday, when Chelsea traveled north to face Manchester City. The home team registered an emphatic 3-0 victory, but there are still some lingering questions that need answering …” Grantland (Video)

Early Skews, Man City Impress And Other Stat Stories: EPL Week 2

“We’ve hit the crucial juncture of two (!) games now and already firm story lines are appearing around the media. Simple hooks are readily available to explain any positive or negative deviation, depending on which direction a team appears to be turning. Take Southampton; last season they conceded four or more shots on target on 14 separate occasions and yet in only five of those games they conceded twice or more. In all those matches combined, they ran a pretty much bang on league average 70% save percentage.” StatsBomb

La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga, Ligue 1: Who will win titles?

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“From managerial changes at some of the continent’s biggest clubs to long-running transfer sagas, it has been a hectic summer of activity across Europe. The season has already begun in France, Germany kick off their league campaign this weekend, while Spain and Italy start the following week. So what has changed? Who are the new faces to watch out for and, crucially, what does it all mean for the title races in Europe’s major leagues?” BBC

Record fourth straight Bundesliga title all but a given for Bayern Munich

“No team has ever won four German titles in a row before. Not in the Bundesliga, and not in the complicated days before the national league when the champion was decided by regional tournaments feeding into a knockout. When Bayern won a third straight title last season, it was the fifth time since a national championship was inaugurated in 1903 that a team had completed a hat trick. But nobody’s ever done four. This should be the story of a great quest, of a champion struggling against the entropic imperative to register the greatest run of sustained success in history, but it’s not. Bayern will, almost certainly, win the title.” SI – Jonathan Wilson

Henrik Larsson: Humble and hungry for success as a manager

“He walks into the room overlooking the pitch at Helsingborg’s Olympia stadium, sticks out his hand and apologises for being late – about two minutes late. To most of us, it’s nothing but, then, Henrik Larsson has never been like most of us. To a footballer whose greatness was built, in part, on the back of impeccable timing, two minutes is two minutes too long. He hasn’t changed, not much at any rate. He’s 43 but still looks fit enough to waltz on to the pitch at Celtic Park and light the place up one more time. Football is now something he plays for fun with his mates once a week in an over-35s league. But his new life as a manager? That’s a different story. That’s the thing that envelops him now.” BBC