Randomness And The Fog Of Goals

“Short termism is rife in football coverage these days. From the insatiable desire to learn 5 things from each match day to the pendulum swing in Falcao’s perceived talent level between last summer and this. It’s common to hear strikers’ peaks and troughs talked about in terms of confidence, hunger and desire, as though each change in output is the result of some tweak in the internal machinery of the player’s mentality and training. But how much of this is true and how much can be attributed to statistical noise? Take these three players, for instance. Goal-scoring in 6 consecutive season adjusted for minutes played. Who do you think they are? Which player is the best?” Stats Bomb


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