Goalkeepers ‘gambler’s fallacy’ impacts penalty shoot-outs

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Brazil’s Julio Cesar saves from Chile’s Alexis Sanchez in a second round shoot-out
“Goalkeepers facing penalty shoot-outs make a predictable error that could influence the outcome say researchers. Psychologists studied videos from World Cups and European Championships between 1976 and 2012. They found that after three kicks in the same direction, keepers were more likely to dive the opposite way on the next shot. Luckily for them, penalty takers have so far failed to exploit this predictable pattern. Four knockout games in the 2014 World Cup in Brazil were decided by penalties – a record shared with Italy in 1990 and Germany in 2006.” BBC

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